The Ugly Reality of the Big Beautiful Bill: Impacts on the State of Illinois and the Path Forward

The Ugly Reality of the Big Beautiful Bill: Impacts on the State of Illinois and the Path Forward
Released

This report by the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability analyzes the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" ("OBBBA"), the sweeping federal legislation signed into law by President Trump on July 4, 2025, which represents the most significant restructuring of federal tax and spending policy in decades. The OBBBA delivers trillions of dollars in permanent tax cuts weighted heavily toward wealthy individuals and corporations, financed in large part through deep reductions to Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, clean energy investment, and federal education funding—programs that disproportionately serve low- and middle-income Americans. The report documents five decades of evidence demonstrating that supply-side tax policy has consistently failed to produce the economic growth its proponents promise while reliably increasing the national deficit and income inequality. For Illinois specifically, CTBA estimates that fully offsetting the OBBBA's combined fiscal impacts, including backfilling Medicaid and SNAP cuts so that Illinois residents continue receiving current services, would cost the state's General Fund approximately $45.4 billion over the next ten years, or an average of $4.54 billion annually. The report concludes by identifying the structural revenue reforms, including income tax reform, sales tax base expansion, and pension re-amortization, and near-term defensive actions that Illinois policymakers must pursue to navigate this historic fiscal challenge without devastating cuts to core public services.

 

Cook County's Budget: Long-Term Imbalance Leads to New Pain for Vulnerable Residents

Cook County's Budget: Long-Term Imbalance Leads to New Pain for Vulnerable Residents
Released

On October 11, 2017, the Cook County Board of Commissioners voted to repeal a penny-per-ounce tax on sweetened beverages. The FY2018 budget presented by Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle had relied on the sweetened beverage tax to cover just over $200 million of the county's projected expenditures on services.

However, Cook County's budget shortfall is not merely a product of the short-term decision to repeal the sweetened beverage tax without revenue to replace it. The county has an ongoing structural deficit driven by the fact that 43 percent of the county's revenues come from sources that are growing slower than inflation. Moreover, the county has chosen not to increase its base property tax levy since 1996—even to adjust it for inflation. As a result, the real value of Cook County's base property tax levy has declined by 36 percent over the last 20 years.

Now that the tax has been repealed, county officials are considering closing the FY2018 shortfall by cutting spending on core services. Some of the proposed cuts would:

  • Significantly increase caseloads for probation officers. Caseloads are currently 108 probationers per officer, or 21 percent above standards recommended by the Administrative Office of the Illinois Court.
  • Suspend the Mortgage Forecloseure Mediation Program, which assists low-income homeowners through the foreclosure process.
  • Close a branch courthouse, forcing residents to travel farther to attend hearings.

These service cuts would disproportionately affect Cook County residents who are low income and residents of color.

Cook County must address the long-term unsustainability of its revenue system if it is to avoid enacting further harsh cuts to core services.

You can read the full report on the Budget Blog or download a PDF by clicking below.

Illinois on Autopilot, the Reality of FY2016

Illinois on Autopilot, the Reality of FY2016
Released

In both magnitude and meaning, state elected officials have no greater obligation than passing a General Fund budget into law. Consider magnitude first. Last fiscal year the General Fund budget provided for the expenditure of $35 billion. No question, that constitutes a sizeable expenditure of taxpayer money. It is also meaningful. While nearly $11 billion was targeted for Hard Costs like debt service and other legally mandated payments, over $24 billion was invested in current services across communities statewide. In fact, over 90 percent of FY2015 General Fund expenditures on services covered education (35 percent), healthcare (30 percent), human services (21 percent), and public safety (7 percent). To be clear, it is those services which provide for the basic health and well-being of the citizenry, and go to the very heart of why we elect a Governor and General Assembly in the first place.

By failing to pass a General Fund budget for FY2016, elected officials are basically punting the following difficult, but fundamental, responsibilities to: 

  • Make decisions about how to allocate scarce resources among the aforesaid four service priorities; 
  • Identify which of, and by how much, those services will be cut, despite their high priority, if the state’s current woeful fiscal condition is not addressed; or 
  • Raise the tax revenue needed to fund those core services to the amounts needed to satisfy demographically driven demand.

How Public Long-Term Care Services for Older Adults are Funded in Illinois

How Public Long-Term Care Services for Older Adults are Funded in Illinois
Released

A primer on how Illinois finances long-term care for older adults, produced by the Finance Workgroup of the Illinois Older Adult Services Advisory Committee (OASAC). OASAC was established to analyze the different financing options for reforming the long-term care system for older adults in Illinois. The Center for Tax and Budget Accountability was a member of the OASAC.

Illinois State Funding for Human Services in Context

Illinois State Funding for Human Services in Context
Released

Reduced funding in FY2011 would continue long-term pattern of spending cuts, harm vulnerable populations and fall disproportionately on small to midsized businesses, hurting the state economy. This Report finds that after adjusting for inflation and population growth, Illinois under funded human services by $4.4 billion from Fiscal Year 2002 through Fiscal 2010.

Gender Disparity in Human Services

Gender Disparity in Human Services
Released

Women suffer disproportionately from Illinois' cuts to its human services budget according to this Report. Over the last decade, the state has cut its real investment in assorted human service programs collectively by more than $4.4 billion. Gender Disparity in Human Services analyzes how the FY2011 Illinois Human Services budget has targeted severe cuts to important service areas of particular concern to women. 

Ramifications of State Budget Cuts to Human Services

Ramifications of State Budget Cuts to Human Services
Released

This Report, co-authored by CTBA and the Social Impact Research Center, highlights  the consequences of state budget cuts to human service programs.